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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being over-promoted as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”