Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.