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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.