How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled talks on the almost lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Joshua Phillips
Joshua Phillips

Elara is a seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in online betting strategies and industry trends.